Europe Adapts to Cold Faster Than Heat, Study Finds

A recent study conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has shed light on Europe's ability to adapt to temperature variations. Published in The Lancet Planetary Health, this research indicates that Europe has been more successful in adjusting to cold temperatures than to heat over the past two decades.

Key Findings

The study, which collaborated with the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), analyzed temperature and mortality data from over 800 regions across 35 European countries between 2003 and 2020. Researchers noted significant trends:

• The relative risk of death associated with low temperatures decreased by 2% per year.
• The risk of death from high temperatures also declined, but at a lower rate of 1% per year.

Innovative Methodology: Extreme-Risk Temperature (ERT)

Traditionally, studies assessing heat and cold mortality have relied on fixed temperature thresholds. However, this research employed a novel framework called Extreme-Risk Temperature (ERT), which factors regional vulnerabilities into risk calculations. This approach entails:

• Cross-referencing regional temperature and mortality data to find specific temperature thresholds for increased mortality risk.
• Evaluating temporal variations in mortality to understand adaptations to changing temperatures.

Through this innovative methodology, researchers identified that:

This data highlights varying regional adaptations; for instance, Southeastern Europe, although warmer, faced higher mortality risks due to extreme temperatures.

Factors Influencing Vulnerability

According to the research team, the vulnerability to temperature extremes differs significantly across Europe. Key factors affecting sensitivity include:

• Geographic Variation: Southern European regions are more sensitive to temperature changes than their Northern counterparts.
• Socioeconomic Factors: Inadequate housing insulation, lower public health funding, and limited social support exacerbate temperature vulnerabilities.

“Our findings demonstrate a remarkable improvement in cold adaptation, yet strategies for heat-related mortality remain insufficient.” – Zhao-Yue Chen, ISGlobal Researcher

The Urgent Need for Heat-Health Action Plans

The study concluded with a pressing call for action: although progress has been made in cold weather adaptation, heat-health action plans (HHAPs) are still lacking in many regions. A recent survey noted that:

These figures underline the necessity for targeted interventions and regional strategies to safeguard vulnerable populations against heat-related health risks.

The Intersection of Temperature and Air Quality

The research also examined the interplay between ERT events and air pollution levels exceeding World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Noteworthy insights from this analysis include:

• Compound events, where dangerous temperatures coincide with high pollution, occurred on 60% of heat-ERT days and 65% of cold-ERT days.
• While the frequency of these compound days has generally decreased, instances of extreme heat days combined with ozone pollution have increased by 0.26 days per year.

Zhao-Yue Chen emphasizes the growing importance of addressing the compounded health threats from extreme temperatures coupled with air pollution.

Conclusion

This study provides critical insights into Europe's adaptations to temperature extremes and highlights the urgent need to strengthen strategies for heat-related mortality. As climate challenges evolve, continued research and enhanced policy frameworks will be vital to protect public health.

Further Reading

For a detailed exploration of the study, please refer to: Europe's population is adapting better to cold than to heat, study shows.

References

• Chen, Z.-Y., et al. (2025). Trends in Population Exposure to Compound Extreme-risk Temperature and Air Pollution across 35 European countries: A modeling study. The Lancet Planetary Health.
• More information can be found at WHO.